In this video, I’m breaking down why the Twin Cities real estate market is basically in a deadlock—call it gridlock, a stall, or just “stuck.” The short version is:
✅ We have fewer homes coming on the market
✅ Closed sales are down
✅ Interest rates are keeping both buyers and sellers frozen
And when you combine all of that, the market can’t move the way it normally does.
The Data View: 2005 to Today
To explain what’s happening, I’m looking at long-term market data going all the way back to 2005.
When you zoom out, you can clearly see that the market has gone through very different cycles:
- the huge listing volume around the mid-2000s
- the crash/foreclosure era
- the COVID era (low rates + strong demand)
- and now this current period of “stuckness”
Even when the total listing numbers don’t look wildly dramatic month-to-month, the trend that matters is:
new listings are down… and closed sales are also down.
That’s a recipe for a frozen market.
The Core Problem: Sellers Don’t Want to Give Up Their 3% Mortgage
This is the heart of the gridlock.
Let’s say someone bought a home (or townhouse) and locked in a mortgage rate around 3%.
Now fast forward to today:
- If they sell, they have to buy again at a much higher rate
- Even if they “upgrade” or “downsize,” their monthly payment often jumps
- So most people think: “Why would I move?”
And that creates a ripple effect:
- fewer sellers list their homes
- which means fewer homes for buyers to choose from
- which means fewer total closings
So even though buyers still exist, the market doesn’t flow.
Why Closed Sales Matter So Much
When closed sales decline, the market starts to lose its “normal rhythm.”
A healthy market has:
- consistent new listings (supply)
- consistent buyer activity (demand)
- and enough closings to keep prices and inventory balanced
Right now, closings are down because many buyers simply can’t qualify for the payment at today’s interest rates.
So we’re stuck between:
- limited supply
- and limited affordability
That’s the gridlock.
What Could Break the Deadlock?
There are basically two ways this goes:
1) Interest Rates Come Down
If rates drop meaningfully:
- the monthly payment becomes more affordable for buyers
- more buyers can qualify
- sellers feel more comfortable moving (because the “rate penalty” is smaller)
- more listings come on
- more sales happen
That would restore movement and volume.
2) Rates Stay High + Financial Pressure Builds
If rates stay high and closed sales keep deteriorating, a different force can break the market:
- rising credit card debt
- higher car payments
- cost of living increases
- tighter budgets
Even if home values (like price per square foot) appear steady, growing consumer debt can put pressure on homeowners—especially those who are stretched.
And when people get squeezed, you start to see more:
- short sales
- foreclosures
- lender-mediated situations
Price Per Square Foot: It’s High, Even If It’s Not “Exploding”
One thing that surprises people is that price per square foot doesn’t always look like it’s skyrocketing month to month—yet homes still feel unaffordable.
That’s because affordability isn’t just price.
It’s price + interest rate.
A house can be priced “reasonably” relative to recent years, but the payment can still be brutal if the interest rate is high.
And that’s why the market can stall even if pricing looks stable on paper.
Short Sales and Foreclosures: Early Signals?
When you isolate lender-mediated activity (short sales / foreclosures), the data can show a slight uptick over a multi-year view—especially when you look at rolling trends rather than just month-to-month noise.
Now, to be clear:
- we’re nowhere near the scale of the last crash era
- and the Twin Cities is not sitting with some massive number like “35,000 homes on the market” the way it did during extreme periods
But the key point is:
If affordability stays strained long enough, you can see gradual increases in distress activity.
Why This Creates a “Stalled Market”
So if you’re wondering why it feels like nothing is happening—or why it feels hard to buy, hard to sell, and hard to move up:
It’s because we’re trapped in this loop:
- High rates → buyers can’t qualify
- People with low rates won’t sell → fewer listings
- Fewer listings + fewer qualified buyers → fewer closings
- Fewer closings → market stagnates
- Financial pressure builds over time → potential increase in short sales/foreclosures
That’s the gridlock.
Bottom Line
The Twin Cities market is stalled right now because:
- sellers are sitting on low mortgage rates and don’t want to move
- buyers are getting priced out by interest-rate-driven monthly payments
- inventory and closed sales are both suppressed
- and the longer that continues, the more likely we see financial stress show up in the form of lender-mediated sales
If rates drop, movement returns.
If rates don’t drop and pressure builds, the market can “break” through a rise in distress inventory.
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